I came across an article last week about the Arizona race for governor that shows how success on social media does not necessarily translate into an electoral victory. The Democrat in the race, Fred DuVal, had 30,425 fans of his Facebook page, whereas the Republican, Doug Ducey, had 18,866 fans of his Facebook page. Yet Ducey decisively beat DuVal, 53.6% to 41.5%. There are many stories of the reverse being true, particularly the legendary Obama campaign of 2008, but to what extent do one’s social media fans take a break from the liking and start voting in an election?
Deciphering how social media support affects voting can be a hot mess – even if you can get a solid handle on how the last election went, the ever changing variables of the electorate (age, gender, religion, ethnicity, income, Internet access, etc.) can make such understanding fleeting. One of the greatest obstacles to grasping this link is attempting to understand what social media support itself means. It is difficult to measure the depth of support that a person’s social media engagement represents. An activist who participates in get-out-the-vote efforts and literature drops in neighborhoods may look identical on a candidate’s social media platform to a slacktivist who follows and comments on the same platform but does not participate in politics beyond the confines of the Internet. But clearly the level of commitment of these two people are on differing planes, and it would appear that the activist would be more likely to go to their polling place and cast their ballot than the slacktivist. Perhaps with more extensive academic research coupled with technological advances to measure the more varied and complicated levels of a person’s support, we can better understand the real meaning behind participation on the social media platforms of political candidates.
But in the interim, it is wise to recognize there is no solid equivalency between social media fandom and vote counts at the ballot box. Social media is not the magic elixir of victory – it remains one of many tools that candidates use to connect with constituents and motivate them to vote.